New Study Projects 360 Million Cases of Peripheral Artery Disease by 2050, Driven by Metabolic Risk and Aging #ActAgainstAmputation @researchatusc @alpslimb #CLTI #PAD

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 8, 2025

New Study Projects 360 Million Cases of Peripheral Artery Disease by 2050, Driven by Metabolic Risk and Aging

Proactive Prevention Could Avert One in Three Cases

Chongqing, Los Angeles — A landmark global study published today in Research (DOI: 10.34133/research.0702) projects a 220% increase in peripheral artery disease (PAD) cases worldwide by 2050, with prevalence expected to rise from 113 million in 2021 to more than 360 million. The study, led by the “Flow and Toe” Research Team (FORT), represents the most comprehensive population-based forecast of PAD to date, incorporating dynamic interactions among metabolic risks, demographic shifts, and socioeconomic indicators across 204 countries and territories.

PAD—a major vascular condition linked to limb amputation, cardiovascular disease, and premature death—is forecasted to exact a particularly steep toll on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where more than half of all cases will occur. The study finds that diabetes and other metabolic disorders now outpace smoking as the dominant global drivers of PAD, a shift that highlights a growing health equity crisis.

“What we found is both alarming and actionable,” said Dr. Wuquan Deng, senior author of the study and professor at Chongqing University Central Hospital and King’s College London. “If current trends continue, we are facing a doubling of PAD mortality and a staggering 68% rise in disability burden. Yet, by prioritizing aggressive management of diabetes, obesity, and hypertension, we could prevent over 30% of this burden.”

The research projects a sharp rise in PAD prevalence among older adults, with rates expected to exceed 21% in women and 14% in men over age 65 by 2050. It also underscores the widening global divide: the greatest increases in disease burden are projected for East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia—regions already struggling with limited vascular care infrastructure.

“This is a call to action,” said Dr. David G. Armstrong, co-author and Distinguished Professor of Surgery and Neurological Surgery at the University of Southern California. “PAD is the tip of a much larger metabolic iceberg. If we act decisively, we can not only prevent disease but reduce amputations and deaths. This study gives us a roadmap—and a responsibility—to do so.”

The authors emphasize that modest improvements in metabolic risk control could yield enormous population-level benefits: reducing PAD prevalence by 36%, mortality by 17%, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 10% globally.

The study was supported by national science foundations and health agencies in China, the United States, and the European Union, including the NIH and the NSF-funded Center to Stream Healthcare in Place (C2SHiP).

Deng L, Du C, Liu L, Wang Y, Gu H, Armstrong DG, Mills JL, Hochlenert D, Deng H, Ran J, Chen Y, Jiang X, Ma Y, Chen Q, Deng W; Flow and Toe Research Team (FORT), “Forecasting the Global Burden of Peripheral Artery Disease from 2021 to 2050: A Population-Based Study,” Research (Wash D C). 2025 Jul 1:8:0702. doi: 10.34133/research.0702. eCollection 2025.